Sugar agro-industry at 2 March 2009
• US Industrialists extremely worried
• Lower production and more imports in its balance?
• Will the NAFTA sugar chapter be renegotiated?
• 2008/2009 Harvest Preliminary Report at 21 February 2009
• Weekly market
Between January and February of this year, production estimates and import figures in the US sugar trade balance fell drastically. Production, especially that related to sugar cane, was adjusted downwards by 85 thousand tons. As shown in the following table, sugar production in the US over the last six years has diminished by almost one million short tons. The harvest areas of sugar cane and beet have fallen. Producers have taken refuge in higher yield crops such as corn. Imports that have entered Mexico since 2008 have been adjusted downwards by 100 thousand tons while imports in 2009 are figured to rise by 50 thousand tons. From October to date, estimated imports for 2009 have gone to 2.53 from 2.45 million short tons. In five years, imports have grown around 45%, which is more than 700,000 short tons.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates a lower number for its export program, of 40 thousand tons, which historically have all been sent to Mexico. The USDA is also expecting a lower domestic consumption figure by around 40 thousand tons, going to 10.84 from 10.88 million short tons. From last October to the present, estimated final inventories have been adjusted upwards for the 2008/2009 final harvest cycle to more than one million tons from the 656 thousand tons that was originally expected in October. This means that the inventory/use ratio is now estimated to be around 9.84 percent from levels towards the end of last year that had been at unforeseen levels of barely 5.99 percent. However, as we can see in the Balance table, it will still be one of the lowest observed since 2002.

At any rate, industrialists in the sugar industry in the USA, called “sugar barons”, because of their powerful lobbying which keeps them in the corridors of power in Washington DC, are not at all partial to this. Figures are going against them and are hitting their pockets directly. They are saying that this year they face very serious challenges, the most important being the following: 1. The higher cost of raw materials which has increased more quickly than the selling price of sugar. 2. The uncertainty that exists in sugar import policies, basically coming from the tariff-free trade agreements of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA). The American Sugar Alliance (ASA), which brings together sugar cane producers and refineries in the United States of America, affirms that much of the sugar that comes in is subsidized and asserts that for this reason, is displacing their product from their market, and more so in times of crisis. “Unnecessary sugar” is what they call sugar that comes in free of duties.
Will the NAFTA sugar chapter be re-negotiated?
Point number 3, which is also the focal point of their concern, is that the pressure on Barack Obama’s budget, which has not yet been approved, could shatter the objectives of the Farm Bill and of sugar policy in general. All sectors, including housing, banking, automobile, oil and corn, want a larger slice of the budgetary pie as an out from the crisis. The budget that the Farm Bill is proposing is enormous and there is concern that sugar producers will not perform. One of the main exit routes for sugar surpluses which sugar producers and their lobbyists managed to include in the Farm Bill, is that sugar surpluses, if there are any, would be sent to alcohol and ethanol processing plants, obviously at prices subsidized by the government.
While Mexico was exporting only standard export quality sugar (raw sugar for them) and they would then reprocess it to convert it into refined sugar, there was no real concern. Now that almost half of what Mexico exports is refined sugar, they are really worried, as the refined sugar now competes in the US market. The United States sugar policy includes the importation of sugar from 40 countries under a system of quotas assigned every year. But under the TLC, Mexico can send a limited quantity of sugar, which according to the calculations of American analysts, could arrive at one million tons per year, up from the more or less 700 thousand tons that are being exported annually on average at present. As it is not possible to calculate exactly how much is liable to cross the border, Mexico’s actions are creating a lot of uncertainty for them. If anyone is interested in renegotiating the sugar chapter of free trade agreement, it is the North Americans. They at some point thought that with the opening of trade they would be able to export sugar to Mexico; however we do not know what system they would have used, given that they are negative producers. The reality of the matter is different and they feel that their market is threatened. For Mexico, it is natural to place its surplus in the United States market, above all in the face of the growing threat to put high fructose corn sugar (HFCS) in the domestic sugar market. In other words, in order for the HFCS to continue making headway in the Mexican market, surplus sugar will move up north. There is nothing that can be done about it except perhaps that the North Americans little by little buy up the domestic industry, and take advantage of the crisis and the local industry’s lack of liquidity, infrastructure and planning.
2008/2009 Harvest Preliminary Report at 21 February 2009
At 21 February 2009 there were 53 sugar mills in operation (Azsuremex, San Gabriel, Independencia and La Concepción have still not started to harvest), with a harvested surface of 273,197 hectares, an industrialized volume of gross crushed sugar cane of 20.4 million tons, with a sugar production of 2.3 million tons, 678 thousand tons of molasses and 8.4 million liters of alcohol. In the following table we can see the statistical differences between the different institutions which process information about the sugar industry.

Sugar production from the current harvest continues ahead of production levels from the same date as the previous harvest. As seen in the following table, almost 2 million tons more sugar cane has been crushed and almost 270 thousand tons more sugar has been produced. Factory yield has improved, which has helped counteract the decline in field yield. Oil consumption is much less, which has helped produce savings for the industry in general and in environmental advances.

For the last two week, real sugar production has been above the production estimated by the National Union of Sugar Cane Producers of the CNPR. As we can see in the table, real production is above the 5.44 million tons forecast by the Union, around 50 thousand tons less than the previous harvest. The highest production forecast is that of the National Chamber of the Sugar Industry (CNIAA), which is expecting is expecting sugar production figures to be higher than 5.5 million tons.

Refined sugar production is higher than that of the previous harvest. The Piasa mills are marginally above their production estimates. Lazaro Cardenas (a standard sugar producer up through the previous harvest) now produces almost 10 thousand tons of refined quality, being its first foray into refined sugar production. Nevertheless, this higher production of refined sugar compared to the 2007/2008 harvest has failed to calm markets that are seeing growing exports of this quality of sugar.


With respect to the production of standard grade sugar, to date we have around 80 thousand tons less than in the previous harvest, although it has to be said that the harvesting of special white grade sugar is up 76 thousand tons from the previous harvest. Central Motzorongo mill has produced 11,700 tons of muscovado to date, more or less the same as what was produced in the previous harvest.

State by state, we can see that with regard to field yield, Puebla, Morelos and Sinaloa continue to lead this area with tons per hectare averaging above 100, while Campeche, Quintana Roo, Oaxaca and San Luis Potosí average 50 tons per hectare, which occasions a drop in the domestic average to a little more than 3 tons per hectare. With respect to factory yield, San Luis Potosi is one of the top producers, with 12%, only just lagging behind Morelas and Puebla.

Weekly market
The average prices of standard grade sugar in the four main areas of the country practically stayed the same as the previous week. Not so for refined sugar which rose on average by more than 2.50 pesos per 50 kg bulk in the Mexico City market. In accordance with what we have seen in the market, it would not be unexpected in the following weeks to see greater increases, possibly sporadic, in the prices of both grades. An atmosphere of uncertainty prevails in the face of pressure from sugar producers to modify the formula for the establishment of the reference price of sugar for payment of sugar cane.

In spite of the fact that domestic sugar producing organizations, together with the representatives of the industrialists and the competent authorities, participated in the design of this formula, to date it has not been properly accepted by everyone. Sugar cane leaders from some mills in Veracruz argue that the reduction of 7.5% on the average price of standard grade sugar in the states of DF, Guadalajara, Puebla and Toluca, which is in theory the cost of transporting the sugar to those markets, will make them lose on the final price for production in this harvest. The problem lies perhaps in the fact that the amount of 4,800 million pesos established in the federal budget to assist sugar cane producers will not be enough to cover what they were paid for the sugar cane in the previous harvest. In other words, even though the reference price for the payment of sugar cane was established at 275 pesos per 50 kg bulk of sugar for prepayments, this budget will not be enough to raise the reference price to the equivalent of at least 300 pesos per 50 kg bulk. It is too early to tell, but this is something that should be given due thought.
Important Note: For all prices, Dollar-peso exchange rate at 14.93 pesos