Brasil tendría mejor zafra la próxima temporada: UNICA

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La producción de azúcar en la principal zona productora del Centro Sur de Brasil aumentará la próxima temporada, pero menos de lo que los inversinistas creen, dijo el portavoz de la UNICA, Antonio de Padua Rodrigues.

Aunque Unica, el grupo industrial brasileño de caña de azúcar, todavía no ha publicado previsiones oficiales para la cosecha de la caña y la producción de azúcar en 2016-17, Padua cree que la producción de azúcar levantará por algunos 2 millones de toneladas la próxima temporada a unos 33 millones de toneladas, según los analistas del banco que llevan a cabo una reunión con el director técnico de Unica.

Esa cifra es inferior a las estimaciones de muchos otros analistas, como Datagro, por ejemplo, que fija sus estimaciones de producción entre 33.5 y 34.5 millones de toneladas y una estimación para el cultivo de caña de 610 a 630 millones de toneladas, por arriba de los 605 millones de t. previstas para esta temporada.

Platts Kingsman pronostica la producción de azúcar sería de 35.12 millones de toneladas la próxima temporada, en un cultivo de caña de 620.0 millones de t.

“Salimos de la reunión con la impresión de que el mercado sobrevalorado el aumento potencial de la producción de azúcar”, dijo Itaú BBA.

Leer la nota original de Agrimoney.com

Market ‘too optimistic’ on Brazil sugar output prospects

Sugar production in Brazil’s key Centre South district will rise next season, but by less than many investors believe, influential industry spokesman Antonio de Padua Rodrigues believes.

Unica, the Brazilian cane industry group, has yet to release official forecasts for the cane harvest, and sugar output, in 2016-17 in the Centre South, which is responsible for some 90% of domestic production of the sweetener.

“The official announcement about the sugar cane crop projection will be only in April, at the harvest beginning,” Unica said in a statement to Agrimoney.com.

However, Mr Padua believes that Centre South sugar output will rise by some 2m tonnes next season to about 33m tonnes, according to bank analysts who held a meeting with the Unica technical director.

‘Market too optimistic’

“Mr Padua believes that sugar production will reach 33m tonnes in the Brazilian Centre South in 2016-17,”analysts at Itau BBA said.

That figure is lower than estimates from many other analysts, with Datagro, for instance, forecasting output of 33.5m-34.5m tonnes, on an estimate for a cane crop of 610m-630m tonnes, up from 605m tonnes expected for this season.

Platts Kingsman forecasts sugar output of 35.12m tonnes next season, on a cane crop of 620.0m tonnes.

“We left the meeting with the impression that the market overrates the potential increase in sugar output,” Itau BBA said.

Mr Padua reportedly believes that the cane harvest will be 615m tonnes next season – in line with this season’s output under a revised accounting method.

The bank also quoted expectations of a 3-point increase in the percentage of sugars in cane, and a 2-point rise, to about 43%, in the proportion of cane being directed at making sugar, rather than ethanol.

Maximum crush

Mr Padua also believes that Centre South mills are approaching their effective maximum capacity, which has thanks to mechanisation come down some 5% to 640m tonnes a year.

While the nominal maximum capacity is about 800m tonnes a year, that assumes no rain delays, or maintenance stoppages.

“Historically, the highest usage ever achieved was close to 85%,” pre-mechanisation, the Itau BBA report said.