Para la zafra 2017-18, la consultora Platts-Kingsman estima un superávit de alrededor de 2.73 millones de toneladas valor crudo (mtvc), debido a la expectativa de una mayor producción de azúcar en Europa y Brasil así como la recuperación de India y Tailanda debido a mejores condiciones climáticas.
Así mismo, Kingsman calcula que el deficit de la zafra 2015/16 se situó en 7.11 mtvc y el deficit de la zafra 2016/17 estará en alrededor de 5.68 mtvc.
El superávit previsto para la zafra 17/18 se daría después de un periodo de deficits subsecuentes en la producción de azúcar contra el consumo, desde la zafra 2014/15.
A continuación el reporte en ingles.
KINGSMAN World Sugar Supply & Demand Update
Ahead of Dubai sugar week our latest estimate for the 2017-18 season shows a bigger surplus than we penciled in back in mid- December. We now put this surplus 1.51 million mtrv higher at around 2.73 million mtrv mainly on higher output expected for Europe (EU28 and CIS) and Brazil as well as on significant recoveries in production expected in India and Thailand where better weather conditions are seen. Consumption growth is also expected to stagnate at around 1% compared with a 10-year average of 1.8% and the recent high of 2.75% in 2012-13. This is due to higher sugar prices and competition from isoglucose or high fructose corn syrup, which are now cheaper than sugar.
On the other hand, we are putting the combined sugar deficit for the current and previous season around 660,000 mt higher than in our December report at around 12.78 million mtrv. Still, looking back as far as 2006-07 we can’t really identify a global sugar deficit because up to September 2017 the world is estimated to have been producing about 18.9 million mtrv more sugar than it managed to consume, much of which should be still in stock.
On a seasonal basis, the deficit for 2015-16 has been raised by 210,000 mt to 7.11 million mtrv, while the 2016-17 deficit has also been raised by 459,000 mt to 5.68 million mtrv, generally based on a further fall in Indian production.
Brazil: Attention focuses on new crop
We have decided to give an overview of where we are now with next season’s (April-March) crop in Center-South Brazil even though it is too soon to have a very accurate view because much can still change both in the short and long term (e.g. weather, yields, forex, the sugar mix, domestic and world gasoline prices, taxes on ethanol and gasoline, ethanol prices in the US, etc.).
On the weather front, the rainfall has generally helped the development of the new crop. There was above-average rainfall in December and January while in October and November there was enough rain in some places but in others regions it was well below historical averages. If wet weather continues in the intercrop season next crop year agricultural yields might be higher and the ATR lower than expected. At the moment we are working with an agricultural yield of 73.85 mt of cane a hectare, down about 2.56 mt/ha on the year and an ATR close to the five-year average at 134 kg/mt of cane.
The sugar mix remains a big question. On the one hand this season, mills have demonstrated their ability to increase the sugar mix when sugar pays much better than ethanol. Suddenly the sugar mix increased by almost 5.8 percentage points on the year to 46.42%. The question now is how high can it go next season?
Mills have indeed switched more capacity toward producing sugar, with some mills telling us they were building sugar factories and therefore we reckon the sugar mix in CS Brazil could go as high as 48%. But many questions still hang over this such as: Will the rain continue into the new season and make achieving a higher sugar mix difficult? How many mills have direct access to the ports to export sugar? How many mills are cash strapped and will preferto produce ethanol to sell it quickly on the domestic market? How much ethanol will still be needed domestically if the PIS/Cofins tax is imposed on gasoline? How cheap will US ethanol still be? What will the world price of gasoline be?
However, given mills’ intention to raise the sugar mix next season we have adjusted our sugar mix forecast up a tad to 47% from 46.7%.
This tiny increase in the sugar mix brought up our sugar production estimate by around 223,000 mt to 34.926 million mt, just 344,000 mt lower than this season’s.
We have kept the other parameters unchanged, with a cane crush of 582 million mt from a total of 590 million mt available cane (including around 11 million mt of cane reported from this season).
Therefore as the acreage has not really grown lately — we estimate next season’s cane area will be around 7.96 million ha including the cana bisada from this year — agricultural yields and the ATR will be the decisive factors.
S&P Global Platts. Thursday, February 23, 2017.